Credit crisis in Germany: Record difficulties with financing for SMEs hit the TSL sector and Polish carriers

Germany, Poland's largest trading partner and a pillar of European logistics, is facing a historic credit crisis. The latest report by the state-owned development bank KfW (Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau), prepared in conjunction with the renowned economic research institute ifo, reveals alarming data: access to bank financing for small and medium-sized enterprises—the so-called Mittelstand—is currently the most difficult since these statistics began to be collected in 2026. The scale of the problem is unprecedented, and its consequences for European supply chains, including Polish transport and freight forwarding companies, could prove dire.

Record-breaking credit index results – data that leaves no doubt

Wskaźnik "KfW-ifo-Kredithürde", the credit barrier barometer, reached a level in the second quarter of 2026 that analysts have never seen before. 40,5 percent surveyed SMEs applying for loans reported serious difficulties from commercial banks. To fully illustrate the scale of the problem, it is worth emphasizing that this is a sharp increase of 6,5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter — one of the largest quarterly jumps in the survey's history.

The problem isn't limited to small businesses. Large corporations are already feeling the strain of restrictive lending standards. 32,9 percent entities – 3,8 percentage points more than the previous quarter. This means that the tightening of lending policies by banks is systemic and cross-sectional in nature, going far beyond the typical difficulties of small businesses with insufficient credit history or collateral.

Why do banks turn off the money tap?

KfW Chief Economist Dr. Dirk Schumacher points to a complex set of reasons behind the tightening of credit policy. The heart of the problem lies in the weakening macroeconomic situation across Germany, which is impacting the balance sheets of thousands of companies.

• Erosion of equity: Years of high inflation, rising energy costs, and pressure on margins have caused the equity ratios of many companies to steadily decline. Banks, when assessing creditworthiness, look precisely at this safety cushion—and it's getting thinner and thinner.
• Declining credit ratings: Deteriorating corporate financial performance automatically translates into lower credit ratings. This, in turn, triggers banks' defense mechanisms, which, in response to rising risk, demand higher collateral or simply refuse financing.
• Higher risk premiums: Financial institutions, eager to protect their own loan portfolios, are imposing increasingly higher margins on loans. In practice, this means that even those companies that banks decide to grant loans are paying significantly more for them than they did just a year or two ago.
• Stricter security requirements: More and more banks require additional, hard security in the form of real estate, machinery or other assets – which can be an insurmountable barrier for companies with limited fixed assets.

The mechanism is therefore self-reinforcing: a weaker economy worsens the condition of companies, which tightens the policies of banks, which in turn further limits access to the capital necessary to overcome the difficult situation.

Which sectors are most at risk?

Sectoral analysis by KfW and ifo reveals that the scale of the problems varies across industries, but no area of ​​the economy remains unaffected.

Retail trade - at the heart of the crisis

The worst situation is in retail, where over half of the surveyed companies—regardless of size—report serious difficulties obtaining financing. The backdrop to these problems is consumer inflation stagnation: German consumers, tired of years of high prices, are cutting back on spending. Domestic demand is weakening, turnover is falling, and banks are reluctant to lend money to companies in industries showing clear signs of recession.

Industrial processing – problems at the heart of the economy

The fact that difficulties with credit are felt by 40,8 percent companies in the industrial processing sector—the very pillar on which Germany's economic power is built. High energy costs, supply chain problems, and weakening global demand for capital and industrial goods are forcing manufacturers to grapple with rising costs and shrinking revenues.

Service sector - surprisingly high percentage of problems

In the service sector, the credit barrier is felt 42,4 percent enterprises – the highest result of all analyzed industries. This is important information, as the service sector includes, among others, road transport, forwarding, and logistics – areas directly related to the daily activities of Polish business partners.

The TSL sector is on fire – why are carriers particularly vulnerable?

For EURODEBT.eu readers—risk managers and owners of transport and logistics companies—it is the implications for the TSL sector that are of paramount importance. The transport industry is, by its very nature, exceptionally sensitive to disruptions in access to external financing for several fundamental reasons.

Operating capital intensity: A transport company is primarily a fleet of vehicles. Purchasing, replacing, and maintaining them requires significant capital expenditures, which are in the vast majority of cases financed through leasing or loans. If a bank tightens financing terms or refuses to provide financing, the carrier cannot refresh its fleet, which translates into higher operating costs and reduced competitiveness.

Dependence on factoring and working capital loans: The TSL industry operates with long payment terms—the time between the completion of a transport service and receipt of payment from the client can be 30, 60, and sometimes even 90 days. In the meantime, the carrier must pay fuel, drivers, road tolls, and insurance. Factoring and working capital loans are a lifeline for many companies. Limiting access to these instruments can literally bring operations to a halt.

Cost pressure without compensation: The costs of running a transport business—fuel, driver wages, highway tolls, insurance—have been rising for years. At the same time, freight rates are determined by market competition and often fail to keep pace with cost increases. A company that loses access to affordable external financing faces a dire choice: either accept losses or scale back operations.

The domino effect in the supply chain: This is perhaps the most dangerous aspect for Polish partners. When German clients—carriers, freight forwarders, and trading companies—begin to feel credit squeezes, the first thing they do is extend payment terms to their subcontractors. A Polish carrier serving Germany suddenly finds itself waiting 90 or 120 days for payment instead of 30. For a company without a solid capital cushion, this can mean a loss of financial liquidity.

Investment paralysis - German entrepreneurs are holding their breath

Paradoxically, the credit crisis is hitting the market from two sides at once. It's not just banks that are refusing loans—entrepreneurs themselves are increasingly reluctant to apply for them. The percentage of SMEs that have even negotiated loans with banks has fallen to just 19,3 percent — the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2023. This represents a decline of 1,7 percentage points in one quarter. Among large companies, this percentage was 27,5 percent.

Such low demand for financing is not a sign of prosperity—on the contrary, it reflects profound pessimism and investment paralysis. Companies that see no growth prospects or viable investment projects simply don't apply for loans. They don't buy new machinery, expand their fleets, or invest in digitalization or the green transformation.

KfW experts point to several factors driving this stagnation:

• Geopolitical uncertainty: The conflict in the Middle East involving Iran is generating pressure on oil and gas prices, directly impacting the profitability of energy-intensive and transportation companies. It's difficult to plan investments when the price of a key commodity can double within weeks.
• Disruptions to global supply chains: Geopolitical tensions and climate-related disruptions to maritime trade make production and logistics planning extremely difficult. In this situation, caution seems more prudent than ambitious investment plans.
• Weak consumer sentiment: Domestic demand in Germany remains weak. Without clear signs of recovery from consumers, it is difficult to justify expanding production capacity or the fleet.

In the long term, this investment slump has serious consequences for European competitiveness as a whole. Germany, which for decades was the continent's technological and logistics leader, may be losing that position to more flexible economies.

The perspective of a Polish business partner – what does this mean in practice?

Poland is closely intertwined with the German economy. We are one of the largest suppliers of goods and transport services to our western neighbor. In 2025, Polish transport companies handled hundreds of thousands of loads in relations with Germany. Any serious financial turbulence in German companies poses a direct risk to Polish subcontractors, freight forwarders, and suppliers.

What specific threats should Polish companies and their risk managers keep on their radar?

• Extension of payment deadlines: A company struggling with liquidity first tries to "borrow" time from its suppliers. Polish partners may suddenly discover that invoices that were previously paid within 30 days are now waiting 60 or more days.
• Increased risk of contractor bankruptcy: Historical data shows a clear correlation between limited access to credit and an increase in bankruptcies. A company unable to borrow money to cover its current liabilities quickly falls into a debt spiral.
• Deterioration of trading conditions: Customers in financial difficulties may try to renegotiate existing contracts, request discounts or price reductions, and seek savings wherever possible.
• Risk of hidden insolvency: Some companies may mask their financial problems for a period of time by delaying debt settlement before ultimately declaring bankruptcy. Regular monitoring for warning signs is therefore crucial.

Risk Management Recommendations - How to Protect Your Business?

In the face of the growing credit crisis on the other side of the Oder, companies cooperating with the German market – especially those in the TSL sector – should immediately take specific protective measures.

1. Intensify monitoring of the financial condition of contractors

Regularly checking the financial credibility of business partners is no longer an option—it's become a necessity. Use up-to-date trade reports, track debtor registers, and monitor reports of payment delays in the sector. Pay particular attention to companies in industries most affected by the credit crisis: trade, services, and manufacturing.

2. Shorten payment terms and strengthen contract terms

Where possible, strive to shorten payment terms—from 60 to 30 days, from 30 to 14 days. Negotiate advance payments or staged payments for large orders. Ensure your contracts include clear penalty clauses for late payments.

3. Consider trade receivables insurance

Credit insurance is an instrument that takes on particular importance in uncertain times. It allows you to protect yourself against the consequences of a customer's insolvency—the insurer covers a fixed portion of the loss if the customer fails to pay. For companies with significant exposure to the German market, it's a sound investment in security.

4. Diversify your customer portfolio

Relying on a narrow group of partners from a single market for revenue is a classic risk management mistake. If your portfolio is heavily concentrated in Germany, consider actively seeking partners from other markets—Benelux, Scandinavia, the Baltics—to balance your geographic exposure.

5. Build your own liquidity reserve

In times of financial turmoil, a capital cushion is invaluable. Companies with solid liquidity reserves can weather extended payment deadlines without running into trouble themselves. Consider limiting dividend payments to build a safety buffer.

Summary - a wake-up call for the entire European business ecosystem

The data released by KfW and ifo aren't just dry statistics—it's a serious warning sign for anyone doing business with German companies or dependent on the health of the local economy. The historically tight credit situation in the Mittelstand means thousands of companies—from small garages to mid-sized freight forwarders—are teetering on the brink of liquidity.

For the Polish TSL sector, which has built its position over the years on serving the German market, this is a time of particular vigilance. This isn't about pessimism or panic—it's about conscious risk management based on hard data. And these data are now clear: the Mittelstand, which for decades has driven Europe, is going through one of the most difficult moments in its post-war history.

Companies that invest in robust customer verification procedures today, strengthen their commercial contracts, and secure receivables with appropriate financial instruments will be in a much better position to benefit from the recovery tomorrow when it finally arrives. Those that ignore warning signs may not live to see it.