The wave of bankruptcies will not subside before 2027. Atradius report warns the transport industry

The global number of insolvencies is not only not decreasing, it is accelerating – and according to the latest Atradius Insolvency Outlook report, published in October 2026, a lasting reversal of this trend is not expected before the second half of 2027. For companies in the transport and logistics sector that already operate in the worldrodoIn a context of high costs and tight margins, this forecast sounds like another alarm signal requiring an immediate response in the area of ​​counterparty risk management.

Five Percent More Bankruptcies in 2026 – Optimistic Forecasts Revised

At the beginning of this year, many analysts were hoping for a gradual recovery from the global economy's period of heightened instability. However, an October report from Dutch credit insurer Atradius provides a fundamental revision to these expectations. According to the latest forecasts, the number of bankruptcies worldwide will increase by 5% in 2026 compared to the previous year. A decline is expected only in 2027—estimated at 4%—but the first clear signs of normalization won't appear until the second half of next year.

This is a significant correction to previous, more optimistic scenarios. It means that businesses—especially transport and logistics companies operating in a B2B model—must expect a prolonged period of increased payment and credit risk for their contractors. The window for macroeconomic relief is closed until at least mid-2027.

What's driving the wave of bankruptcies? A toxic mix of macro and geopolitical factors.

Atradius experts point to several parallel, mutually reinforcing factors that together create an extremely unfavorable environment.rodoa platform for businesses almost everywhere in the world:

• Persistently high operating costs — including the ever-increasing energy prices, which particularly hit the transport sector, which is directly dependent on the costs of fuel and electricity.
• Escalating trade tensions — Growing protectionism, new tariff barriers and uncertainty in global supply chains are limiting shipping volumes and complicating financial planning.
• Restrictive conditions for external financing — the high level of interest rates in major economies means that the cost of debt servicing remains painfully high and access to new capital is severely limited.
• Weakened consumer demand — in many European economies, real household incomes are still under pressure from cumulative inflation from previous years, which translates into lower demand for goods and services transported by European carriers.

Theo Smid, senior economist at Atradius, comments on the situation directly:rodoThe business environment remains very challenging, and input cost pressures and trade tensions show no signs of abating. Data for the current year clearly confirms that the rising number of bankruptcies is not a temporary phenomenon, but a lasting trend that will persist for the next several months.

Market Darwinism, or Why a Decline in 2027 Isn't a Reason for Optimism

The projected 4% decline in global bankruptcies by 2027 may sound like good news. However, a thorough analysis of the underlying mechanisms suggests considerable caution. This decline will not be the result of a real economic recovery or improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals. — it will be primarily a consequence of a kind of "cleansing" of the market.

The weakest, most deeply indebted, and least flexible companies will simply cease to exist by early 2027. Those that have lived off cheap credit for years and failed to adapt their cost structures to the new, more challenging reality will disappear from the market. Companies that survive this brutal, selective phase will be stronger by definition—but their survival will come at the cost of bankruptcy and restructuring for hundreds, if not thousands, of weaker players in every market.

For creditors and credit risk managers, this is an important distinction: the statistical decline in bankruptcies should not be confused with the end of the crisis. 2027 will bring fewer bankruptcies not because things will be better—but because those who were supposed to fail will have already failed.

Europe: A Mixed Regional Risk Picture

The Atradius report doesn't treat Europe as a single risk area—and rightly so. The severity of insolvency problems varies significantly geographically, which is crucial for companies choosing trading partners or considering expansion into new markets.

UK: Historically high levels of bankruptcies

Atradius analysts are paying particular attention to the situation in the UK, where the number of bankruptcies remains at historically high levels. This is due to three overlapping factors: the massive accumulation of debt during the COVID-19 pandemic (when the government massively supported businesses with loans and guarantees), the still very high costs of servicing these liabilities amid elevated interest rates, and chronically weak consumer demand in the post-Brexit economy.

For Polish and Central European transport companies that conduct regular settlements with British partners or operate on routes to and from the British Isles, The situation in the UK should be treated as a signal to tighten verification procedures and shorten payment deadlines.Counterparty risk on the British side is currently significantly higher than the European average.

Romania: One of the Few Markets with a Forecast of Further Increase in Bankruptcies

Romania also stands out on the European risk map—and not in a positive way. Atradius experts point to it as one of the few markets on the continent where not only is stabilization not forecast, but in fact, a continued, sustained increase in insolvencies is expected. This phenomenon is driven by cumulative fiscal pressures (growing budget deficits and risks to public finances), political instability, and structural inflation, which is eroding the operating margins of local companies.

Romania is a significant market for European road transport—both a significant transit country and a market with a large number of active carriers operating across the continent. Risk managers should consider the Romanian context with heightened caution when assessing trading partners from this country.

Central and Eastern Europe vs. Western Europe

More broadly, both Europe (as a whole) and the Asia-Pacific region can expect a deeper decline in bankruptcies—a 5 percent decline—in 2027, while North America will see a milder 35 percent decline. This divergence suggests that the European economy should recover relatively faster—but only if no new external shocks emerge, such as another escalation of trade tensions or a sharp rise in energy prices.

Transport and Logistics Sector: On the Front Line

Of all the sectors of the European economy, transportation and logistics have found themselves in a particularly difficult situation. The Atradius report clearly identifies this sector as particularly vulnerable to the current macroeconomic conditions—and this is no coincidence.

The nature of transport companies’ business models means they are disproportionately affected by each of the risk factors identified in the report:

• Energy prices — Fuel is one of the largest operating costs for any carrier. Without effective hedging mechanisms, fluctuations in diesel prices directly impact order profitability.
• Wage pressure — shortages of professional drivers in Western Europe have been driving wage growth in the industry for years, limiting operating margins even when the fleet is fully occupied.
• Slowdown in international traderododim — smaller cargo volumes directly translate into lower revenues for transport companies, with no proportional decrease in fixed costs (leasing, insurance, personnel).
• Delays in payments by clients — in conditions of general financial stress, contractors are increasingly delaying the settlement of invoices, which leads to dangerous payment backlogs in the logistics chain.

This last point deserves special emphasis. Payment bottlenecks in transport are of a cascading nature — A single unreliable client can deprive a small or medium-sized carrier of its liquidity within weeks, causing it to default on its obligations to a leasing company, gas station, or customs agency. The domino effect then spreads to subsequent links in the supply chain, destabilizing companies that were already in good financial shape.

Practical implications for risk management in transport and logistics

For risk managers, transport company owners and accounts receivable specialists operating in therodoIn the context outlined by the Atradius report, a shift from a reactive to a proactive counterparty risk management model is crucial. Specific areas requiring immediate attention include:

1. Strengthening contractor verification procedures (KYC)

Standard checks of registry and payment history are clearly insufficient today. In today's environment, regular monitoring of the financial health of key contractors is essential—including current financial statements, changes in ownership structure, information on legal proceedings, and early warning signals (e.g., sudden changes in payment terms, management turnover, asset listings). Platforms like EURODEBT.eu provide this type of data in real time, enabling preemptive action before a problem escalates into full-fledged contractor bankruptcy.

2. Revision of trade credit limits

Credit limits granted to contractors a year or two ago may now be completely inadequate to their current financial situation.rodoGiven the growing number of bankruptcies, it's essential to regularly—quarterly, or even monthly in the case of higher-risk clients—review and adjust granted limits. Clients from the UK and Romania, where sectoral risk is the highest, require particular attention.

3. Shortening and tightening payment terms

In conditions of increased systemic risk, standard payment terms of 30, 60, or 90 days may generate excessive risk exposure. It's worth considering renegotiating commercial terms with counterparties classified as higher-risk—shortening payment terms, introducing advances or partial prepayments, and possibly requiring collateral in the form of bank guarantees or receivables insurance.

4. Diversification of customer portfolio

Concentrating revenues in the hands of one or a few large contractors always generates increased risk—but in the current environment, it's especially dangerous. Transport and logistics companies should actively work to expand their customer base so that the potential bankruptcy of even the largest client doesn't threaten the survival of the entire enterprise.

5. Trade receivables insurance

Trade credit insurance products offered by players such as Atradius, Euler Hermes (Allianz Trade) and Coface are becoming increasingly popular in this context.rodoskowice is not a luxury, but a sensible element of financial risk management. It's worth analyzing whether the current policy corresponds to the company's actual exposure, and if it doesn't, seriously consider implementing it.

2027 Outlook: What awaits the industry after the market is “cleared”?

Although the current picture is decidedly bleak, it's worth looking to 2027 with a dose of constructive optimism—while, of course, remaining fully aware of the risks. Companies that survive this difficult period will enter the market after it has been cleared of the weakest players. Paradoxically, fewer competitors and higher entry barriers may create better conditions for rebuilding margins and strengthening market positions for those who manage to maintain financial liquidity over the next 12-18 months.

The key to survival—and to taking advantage of the opportunities that will arise after the wave of bankruptcies—is maintaining financial liquidity now, during the most challenging phase of the cycle. This requires disciplined receivables management, proactive verification of contractors, and a willingness to act quickly when warning signs appear.

Summary: Time to tighten processes, not wait

The Atradius Insolvency Outlook for October 2026 paints a clear picture: the global market is entering a prolonged period of increased bankruptcies, with the European transportation and logistics industry at the epicenter of this phenomenon. Hopes for a quick macroeconomic recovery are vain—structural improvement will only occur after a painful market selection process that will last at least until mid-2027.

For risk managers and transport company owners, the message is clear: time to tighten contractor verification procedures, review credit limits and actively monitor customer portfolios – with particular emphasis on entities from the UK, Romania and the entire European transport sector. Delays in payments in the current worldrodohave an exceptionally high tendency to develop into bankruptcy proceedings, and the creditor's reaction time is a key variable determining the amount of final losses.

Verification platforms, counterparty ratings and regular receivables portfolio audits are not optional support tools – they are now the absolute basis for responsible business conduct in the transport and logistics industry in Europe.