Germany delays import VAT reform - logistics companies' liquidity on the brink

German industry organizations in the transport and logistics sector are raising the alarm. The government's timetable for VAT reform on imports of goods from outside the European Union assumes that the new regulations will only come into force in January 1, 2030For an industry already struggling with an economic slowdown and rising operating costs, such a long delay is unacceptable. The DSLV (Deutscher Speditions- und Logistikverband) and DVF (Deutsches Verkehrsforum) associations are openly demanding an acceleration of the legislative process, pointing out that every month of delay generates measurable financial losses for hundreds of entities in the TSL sector.

What's the problem? Cash trap at customs

To understand the scale of the problem, we need to look at the mechanism that has been operating in Germany for years and which the logistics industry explicitly calls liquidity trapCurrent regulations require importers—or the freight forwarders acting on their behalf—to physically pay VAT on imported goods at the time of customs clearance. Only after a certain period of time, through standard declaration procedures, can the trader claim a refund.

In theory, this sounds like a temporary inconvenience. In practice, it means freezing the company's own working capital—sometimes for several weeks—against a tax liability that will ultimately be offset. For large corporations with extensive credit lines and a cash buffer, this is a manageable burden. For smaller and medium-sized freight forwarders and carriers handling regular imports of goods from outside the EU, this is a significant balance sheet burden that, in the most difficult cases, can undermine the ability to meet obligations to contractors and employees.

In today's market conditions—high interest rates, shrinking operating margins, and limited access to cheap financing—this systemic compulsion to pre-finance taxes acts as a permanent liquidity drain, the cost of which cannot be ignored.

Verrechnungsmodell: solution ready, implementation postponed

Just wrodoThe industry community doesn't just play the role of a critic—it actively points to a specific solution. This is what DSLV and DVF advocate for. settlement model (Verrechnungsmodell) assumes a fundamental change of approach: instead of physical prepayment of VAT at customs clearance, it would be possible to accounting settlement directly in the submitted tax return.

The difference may seem technical, but its practical consequences are enormous. Eliminating the requirement for cash tax payment at customs clearance would immediately free up billions of euros of capital tied up throughout the system. Logistics companies would effectively stop lending to the state. Supply chains would breathe a sigh of relief, freight forwarders' margins would improve, and import costs—artificially inflated by the need to factor the cost of tax financing into service prices—could finally fall.

The federal government has accepted the reform's direction in principle. The only problem lies in the timing: the 2030 deadline is dismissed by the industry as absurd given the scale and urgency of the problem.

Germany is losing ground - Rotterdam and Antwerp are rubbing their hands with glee

The consequences of the delay are not limited to individual company balance sheets. They have strategic implications for Germany's position as Europe's logistics hub. Key ports — Hamburg and Bremen — have been competing with the western Benelux hubs for years: Rotterdam and AntwerpThis competition takes place across many dimensions: infrastructure capacity, transshipment costs, and the depth of intermodal connections. However, financial considerations are increasingly driving route selection, including the ease of settling VAT on imports.

For years, the Netherlands and Belgium have been offering importers simplified mechanisms—equivalent to the reverse charge model or deferred payment—that eliminate the problem of tied-up capital. For global trade operators and European importers, the calculation is simple: if redirecting goods to Rotterdam avoids the cash flow problems generated by Hamburg, then such a decision makes solid financial sense.

The effect is gradual erosion of transshipment volumes in German ports and deepening the profitability losses of local operators. Every container that bypasses Hamburg in favor of Antwerp means lost revenue for ports, terminal operators, railway companies, and freight forwarders along the entire transport axis. Extending the outdated tax system until 2030 effectively subsidizes Western competitors at the expense of our own infrastructure.

The domino effect in the CEE region – Poland in the firing line

Liquidity problems in the German logistics sector are not without impact on neighboring markets. Poland, with one of the largest and most dynamic transport fleets in Europe, is deeply entwined in the logistics network supporting German foreign trade. Polish carriers and subcontractors handle a significant portion of orders for German forwarders and importers. Payment bottlenecks with a partner are, by definition, a risk for the subcontractor.

The mechanism is simple and well known to risk analysts: frozen capital with a German forwarder — transferred to customs authorities as a VAT prepayment — means a limited ability to settle liabilities to Polish partners on time. Payment deadlines are getting longer. Polish transport companies, which in turn must bear their own costs for fuel, fleet leasing, and wages, are entering a spiral of bottlenecks, the source of which is a distant regulatory issue in Germany.

This is a classic example financial risk in the supply chain – a phenomenon well described in theory, but often underestimated in the practice of supplier risk management. Companies in the CEE region that perceive their risk exposure through the prism of their direct contractors may overlook the fact that their financial stability is indirectly dependent on tax regulations in Berlin.

Macroeconomic context: bad time to postpone reforms

The urgency of this matter takes on an additional dimension when one considers the current state of the German economy. Germany's manufacturing industry has been experiencing contraction in orders and production for several quarters. The automotive sector, a pillar of exports for decades, is undergoing profound restructuring. Domestic demand is weakening, and business sentiment—as measured by the Ifo index, among other factors—remains depressed.

In such arodosectors related to the flow of goods, i.e. logistics and forwarding, are facing a double challenge: shrinking volumes i Growing cost pressure. The additional burden of systemic VAT pre-financing, given the high cost of money and more difficult access to bank financing, is a potentially unbearable burden for smaller entities.

It's no coincidence that industry associations have chosen this moment to escalate their demands. 2025 is the year when the correlation between tax regulations and the real risk of bankruptcy in the TSL sector becomes tangible and statistically noticeable. Economic research institutes and trade credit insurers are reporting an increase in the number of difficult cases among logistics companies in Germany. DSLV and DVF warn: without reform, things will get worse.

The Business Risk Perspective: What Risk Managers Need to Know

For risk managers and owners of transport companies in Poland and other countries in the region, the situation in Germany should be a signal to take several specific analytical and operational actions:

• Cash conversion cycle verification with key German trading partners and clients—especially those heavily involved in handling extra-EU imports. A prolonged cycle is an early indicator of a growing liquidity problem.
• Overview of payment terms in contracts with partners from Germany - it is worth checking whether the current payment deadlines have not actually been extended, even if the contractual provisions formally remain unchanged.
• Monitoring financial condition contractors through available verification tools – trade reports, data from registers and platforms such as EURODEBT.eu. In conditions of increased sector risk, regularly refreshing the partner's assessment is essential.
• Diversification of the order portfolio — dependence on a narrow group of German forwarders handling imports from outside the EU is, in the current circumstances, a concentration risk that requires conscious management.
• Trade receivables insurance — Companies that haven't yet done so should seriously consider covering receivables from TSL partners with credit insurance. However, insurers may raise rates due to the worsening sector risk profile.

What's Next? Key Scenarios

Analyzing possible trajectories of events, three main scenarios can be outlined:

Optimistic scenario: acceleration of legislation

The new federal government, under pressure from industry organizations and in light of deteriorating data on the condition of ports, has decided to urgently accelerate work on the Verrechnungsmodell (Verification Model). The reform is scheduled to take effect by 2027. Freed-up capital is returning to companies, liquidity indicators in the sector are improving, and transshipment volumes in Hamburg are stabilizing. This is a scenario demanded by the industry and one that is fully economically viable.

Baseline scenario: reform in 2030 with partial temporary measures

The government is maintaining the 2030 deadline, but under pressure from industry, it is introducing some temporary relief—for example, simplifications for companies with high import volumes and extending customs VAT payment deadlines. This is a half-hearted solution that alleviates the problem, but does not eliminate it. The risk for smaller businesses remains elevated for years to come.

Pessimistic scenario: status quo until 2030

There are no transitional measures. The economic slowdown is deepening, and the number of restructuring and bankruptcies in the logistics sector is rising. Germany is losing further percentage points of its share in European maritime imports. The credit risk portfolio of financial institutions involved in financing TSL companies is deteriorating. This is a scenario that industry associations are warning against and which, given the lack of political will, is a real possibility.

Summary: time is against us

The reform of the German import VAT tax appears to be a technical and fiscal matter. In reality, it is fundamental to the financial viability of hundreds of companies throughout the supply chain—not just in Germany, but throughout the entire Central European region. The DSLV and DVF associations are right to demand that this legislation be prioritized. Every year of delay represents a tangible loss: tied-up capital, lost transshipment volumes, a weakened competitive position, and a growing risk of bankruptcy among smaller TSL players.

For risk managers and owners of logistics companies in Poland and Central Europe, the message is clear: the situation in Germany requires close monitoringLiquidity problems for a trading partner translate into liquidity problems for the entire chain. Verification, receivables insurance, and portfolio diversification tools are not luxuries—in the current market environment, they are a fundamental standard of risk management.